It's the Economy, Stupid

Here's a little Ernie punditry a la James Carville, political consultant extraordinaire. 

Democrats tonight will most certainly lose control of the House of Representatives. You will hear a lot of talk in the next few days about how Democrats were "too liberal", or Democrats were "too centrist".  Obama, "should have spent more time on jobs and less time on healthcare".  Or, "Obama had all of the policy right, but didn't communicate effectively as he could have." And on some days, I'm partial to that last media narrative.

BUT, here's the god dang truth.  Most presidents in history have lost the House after a big wave election that brought them to power.  New Presidents have only kept the House for their party 3 times in our history. THREE!  Combine that with the weakness of the economy, which is the mortgage and subsequent financial crisis's fault and NOT Obama's and the opposition party is going to have a pretty good cycle.

If unemployment hovers around 10% in 2012, Obama will not be re-elected.  If it gets back down to 6-8% he most likely WILL get re-elected.  It's that simple. You don't need to make up any other stories to explain what happens in elections.

It's the economy, stupid.

P.S. But let's please remember that anyone who talks about stimulating job growth is a Keynesian (commonly associated with general liberalism).  A classical economist lets the economy collapse for a "natural correction" which is more brutal, but theoretically leads to a faster recovery.