It's the Economy, Stupid

Here's a little Ernie punditry a la James Carville, political consultant extraordinaire. 

Democrats tonight will most certainly lose control of the House of Representatives. You will hear a lot of talk in the next few days about how Democrats were "too liberal", or Democrats were "too centrist".  Obama, "should have spent more time on jobs and less time on healthcare".  Or, "Obama had all of the policy right, but didn't communicate effectively as he could have." And on some days, I'm partial to that last media narrative.

BUT, here's the god dang truth.  Most presidents in history have lost the House after a big wave election that brought them to power.  New Presidents have only kept the House for their party 3 times in our history. THREE!  Combine that with the weakness of the economy, which is the mortgage and subsequent financial crisis's fault and NOT Obama's and the opposition party is going to have a pretty good cycle.

If unemployment hovers around 10% in 2012, Obama will not be re-elected.  If it gets back down to 6-8% he most likely WILL get re-elected.  It's that simple. You don't need to make up any other stories to explain what happens in elections.

It's the economy, stupid.

P.S. But let's please remember that anyone who talks about stimulating job growth is a Keynesian (commonly associated with general liberalism).  A classical economist lets the economy collapse for a "natural correction" which is more brutal, but theoretically leads to a faster recovery.

"Are you prepared to see your dwellings in flames?"

With all of the BS political ads running these days, it's a helpful reminder to realize that a bygone era of civility and gentlemanly rules never existed. Dirty politics in the U.S. is not new. In fact, it's a very American pastime. The video speaks for itself. True story. Enjoy.

What I wrote to OFA today

Obama's campaign arm "Organizing for America" asked people to fill out a survey to gauge voter feelings before the midterm.  Here's what I wrote them:

I am a big supporter of President Obama. I think he has been a pragmatic reformer who is moving the country in the right direction. What he needs to do however, is reclaim his transformational presidency. 

I am thankful for his Clintonian successes and Joe Biden was correct when he said healthcare reform was a "BFD" but I want him to be the transformational figure I still believe HE IS. I want him and his staff on the phone with moderate Republicans all the time. I want him to use his personal emotional talent behind the scenes. Americans want the sense that Congress can work together for the benefit of the country. 

Republicans have been absolute a-holes in this regard, but we knew that would be the case going in. I still want the President to work toward a Capitol Hill that at least seems like it's functioning. He can do it. That's why I voted for him. He needs to reclaim that mantle. Otherwise OFA is just an extension of the Democratic Party, and that's great (and it fights for the things I believe in), but I think we all know the change we sought is something much, MUCH deeper. Let's GO do it!

Senate Democrats are big pussies!

You heard me!

Senate Dems are afraid of holding a vote on the Obama administration's policy of continuing the Bush tax cuts for "middle-class Americans" making less than $250,000 per year because some "conserv-a-dems" are afraid of appearing to raise taxes on small business.

As a recent study suggested, ending the Bush tax cuts altogether at the end of this year WOULD BALANCE THE BUDGET BY 2015!  Let's see if Republicans want to take a bite out of that apple. In any case, a majority of Americans support the middle approach advocated by the Obama administration which advocates tax cuts for the middle class over 10 years.

(Note: Ernie actually supports the compromise advocated by former OMB director, Peter Orszag that all of the Bush tax cuts should be extended for two years in-full and then fully expire.)

However, even though a majority of Americans support the Obama administration's proposal Dems are afraid of taking a tough vote that would appear to raise taxes on some segment of the population.  I have respect for Republicans because at least they play to win!

Dems need to find their plums if they want any chance at holding the House and Senate. They'll get votes if they lead with purpose not if they just seem to cover their ass every chance they get!